A study of weather effects, susceptibilities and potential impacts of climate change on mortality in Vadu HDSS, India
The aim of this project is to estimate the effect of weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality and the potential impact of climate change on mortality in Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS).
Key people – Vijendra Ingole, Dr Barbara Schumann, Assoc prof Joacim Rocklöv from Umeå University; Dr Sanjay Juvekar from Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre.
Project Summary - Mortality has been found to be associated with weather patterns and climate extremes. The effects of weather on mortality can be divided into direct effects and indirect effects. There is a need of more research on environmental health in developing countries, and, there has been little empirical research conducted in India, particularly in rural areas, on the association of weather and mortality, in relation to potential climate change induced hazards. An overall objective of this project is to estimate the effect of weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality using verbal autopsy data. The second aim is to identify groups in the population of Vadu that are most susceptible to environmental exposures using retrospective population data of the HDSS. The third aim is to investigate potential future impacts of climate change on the population in Vadu taking into account epidemiological and socio-economic changes. The methods to be use in this project will be times series regression methods as well as the development of case-crossover methods to study susceptibility factors of individuals to time varying exposures. The proposed methodology accounts for the fact that climate extremes and weather are variable over time, and that this variability is related to mortality rates. The expected output of this project will be to establish and report the association between weather and climate change factors upon mortality within the rural population in India, as well as the attributed burden of deaths related to these factors based. Based on these results, inferences can be made for strategies to adapt to continued climate change.
Status - Ongoing